A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
